2026-27 Outlook
LangIndex projects North Carolina at #35 nationally for the 2026-27 college basketball season with a projected efficiency margin of +10.5 points per 100 possessions. The model projects a step back from last season's #24 finish. The model slots this team in the NCAA-tournament conversation.
Only 13% of last season's minutes return, so this roster will look very different. Expect some early-season volatility while new pieces settle in. The incoming class is headlined by 5-star Maximo Adams, part of a 3-commit group.
Last Season (2025-26)
North Carolina finished 2025-26 at 24-8, ranked #24 in the final LangIndex ratings with adjusted offense of 121.2 and adjusted defense of 97.7 points per 100 possessions.
How LangIndex Rates North Carolina
North Carolina's power rating of +10.5 is an adjusted efficiency margin: the points per 100 possessions the model expects them to outscore an average Division I team by, once you strip out schedule strength. It combines adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and pace into one number, so a rating of +10.5 means North Carolina projects to beat a neutral-court average team by about 7 points on a typical night. The full live version updates every morning during the season.
North Carolina Rating History
Season-by-season LangIndex power rating and national rank. North Carolina has trended upward over the last few seasons. Their best finish in this window was #15 in 2023-24.
| Season | Power Rating | Nat. Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | +18.1 | #24 |
| 2024-25 | +10.3 | #45 |
| 2023-24 | +17.5 | #15 |
| 2022-23 | +9.1 | #61 |
| 2021-22 | +10.0 | #48 |
| 2020-21 | +10.1 | #46 |